September export policy to fall and foreign trade policy and industrial policy together
Three-quarter export growth, showing the overall foreign trade margin has stabilized, is expected this trend will continue. At the same time, some new highlights are also emerging. Huang Songping said, in the excellent and excellent aspects of the emergence of some positive changes.
At present, the growth space of foreign trade is adversely affected by the change of international trade pattern. On the one hand, developed economies to promote the revitalization of their manufacturing development, making part of the high-end manufacturing industry from China to the developed countries back; the other hand, the emerging economies with labor, land and other low-cost advantages, increased attractiveness to multinational corporations , In the low-end manufacturing industry to accelerate the pace of the rise of China's traditional market share of the dominant products have a certain squeeze.
In the part of the high-end manufacturing return to developed countries and some labor-intensive industries by the Southeast Asian countries to replace the double squeeze, this year, China's foreign trade is still showing a quarterly trend to stabilize, and the pilot index improved for three consecutive months. Customs released the month of September and the first three quarters of this year's foreign trade data. In RMB, the first three quarters of this year, China's total import and export of goods 17.53 trillion yuan, down 1.9%. September fell 2.4% year on year, of which exports fell 5.6%.
According to customs statistics, in September, import and export value of 2.17 trillion yuan, down 2.4%. Among them, exports fell 5.6%; imports increased 2.2%; trade surplus narrowed 25% to 278.35 billion yuan. In August, exports in the 5 consecutive months of growth, maintained a 5.9% growth. "Foreign trade up and down, good times and bad, which is the new normal foreign trade. Similar to the L-type trend, foreign trade is still at the bottom of the range." Research Institute of the International Market Research Institute of Bai Ming, deputy director of analysis.
Exports fell in September on the back of a general decline in exports to major trading partners. From the export areas, China's exports to the United States increased by -8.1 percent, exports to the EU increased by -9.8 percent, exports to China's Hong Kong, China Taiwan, Japan and ASEAN grew by -10.3 percent, 10.2 percent, -7 percent and -0.8%. In addition, exports to the BRICS countries are also negative growth. BOCOM Research online data, said the main export growth of all trading partners, almost all the decline, and there is no significant base effect, reflecting the current weak external demand environment, exports face greater pressure.
"The international market is not fully recovered, the recent sharp increase in trade friction, especially in labor-intensive industries, China's competitiveness has gradually been replaced by some Southeast Asian countries, which are exports again weak factors." The data show that the first 7 months of this year, China's labor-intensive products in the US and Japanese market share fell 1.1% year on year and 1.7%, while the same period in some Southeast Asian countries, similar products in the United States and Japan's market share were increased 0.7% and 0.9% respectively.
Even so, experts in the industry view, the export of further downward space has been limited. "Although the growth is slow, but our new competitive advantage is growing, while the traditional labor-intensive industries, although some relocation, but there are new, and the transformation and upgrading of the industry combined with the gradual integration of the competition In addition, the current free trade area has 11, is playing a role; "Along the way" is also entering the project fall period. These are supporting the formation of foreign trade. "White said.
"Although the first three quarters of the import and export, import and export value is still down year on year, but, quarterly, showing a quarterly trend to stabilize for the better." General Administration of Customs spokesman Huang Songping 13th in the country new office release Said. Data show that the first quarter of this year, China's imports and exports, exports, imports fell 7.2%, respectively, 6.3% and 8.3%; the three data in the second quarter were -0.2%, 0.6% and -1.3%; in the third Quarter, respectively, were 1.1%, 0.4% and 2.1%.
In the first three quarters, export of motor and generator increased by 5.7%, that of medical equipment and equipment increased by 6.3%, and the export of textile machinery increased. The export of machinery and equipment 1.2%. At the same time, the import value of high-tech products increased by 1.4%.
Bai Ming believes that the current signs of stabilization of foreign trade, but still not generate trends. In particular, further efforts are needed to achieve "good", as it depends on whether fundamentals change. "However, to import and export data throughout the year in the first three quarters of negative growth of 1.9% on the basis of stabilization is still not easy." Bai Ming frankly, because this means that in the last quarter of this year, the need to achieve about 6% Positive growth.
Huang Songping analysis, "to help foreign trade through the" double squeeze "of the difficulties, the policy should be more focused on the industry.Policy is simply not enough to support trade, but also with the policy to support the industry phase.Meanwhile, the combination of" Made in China 2025 ", the revitalization of the Northeast, the Yangtze River Economic Zone," along the way "and the integration of the five strategies, should also further actively attract foreign investment to participate in China's innovation-driven development." White said the FTA strategy has yet to be further excavated potential. Because the current intensity of the largest, the highest level of China and South Korea, China-Australia FTA signed more than a year, bilateral trade data from the current point of view, the advantages of free trade zone has not been fully exploited in this area also has potential to tap.